Despite Smaller Crop - Brazilian Orange Maintains It's Great Quality
ATO Sao Paulo projects the Brazilian orange crop for 2018/19 (MY 2017/18) at 393 million boxes, a decrease of 27 percent relative to the previous season. Citrus trees are stressed from last year’s production and high temperatures in October 2017, which negatively affected fruit setting. Total frozen concentrate orange juice (FCOJ) production is forecast at 1.032 mmt, a significant drop relative to the previous year, (1.447 mmt), due to the expected sharp decrease of oranges for crushing. FCOJ ending stocks are projected at 45,000 mt, 65 Brix, a decrease of 115,000 mt compared to MY 2016/17, the result of anticipated lower product availability. The recent truckers strike is not expected to have a long-term impact on production or availability of citrus.
USDA UPDATE ON BRAZIL’S 2018/19 CROP
The commercial area of the state of Sao Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should produce 288 million boxes during the 2018/19 crop - a marked decline on last season’s bumper crop of 407 million boxes. This projection is based on the Defence Fund for Citriculture’s (Fundecitrus) first citrus crop forecast, released in May 2018. Total Brazilian FCOJ (65 brix equivalent) production for 2018/19 is forecast at 1.032 million million tonnes, down 29% on the previous season due to the expected sharp decrease in the number of orange boxes available for crushing. The Sao Paulo industry is expected to process 248 million boxes of oranges for juice production (178 million boxes for FCOJ and 70 million boxes for NFC OJ). This would result in 932 000 tonnes of juice (660 000 tonnes of FCOJ and 272 000 tonnes of NFC OJ). Other producing states should deliver 24 million boxes for processing. Total Brazilian FCOJ production for 2017/18 is estimated at 1.447 million tonnes, a significant increase of 588 000 on previous crop. FCOJ domestic consumption in Brazil for 2018/19 is forecast to increase marginally to 40 000 tonnes.
Total Brazilian FCOJ exports for 2018/19 are forecast at 1.107 million tonnes, a decrease of 148 000 tonnes from 2017/18 (1.255 million tonnes), due to expected lower orange juice availability. The Sao Paulo industry should contribute 1.052 million tonnes. There was sharp increase of exports to the US in all juice categories due to the tight supply in Florida brought about by hurricane Irma. The US is unlikely to fully recover its production in the upcoming crop, therefore increased shipments to the US are expected to continue during 2018/19.
Ending stocks for 2018/19 (30 June 2019) are projected at 45 000 tonnes (65 brix), down 115 000 tonnes from the previous season due to expected lower orange juice supply. Stock figures only include stocks in the storage tanks of orange juice facilities (processing plants, port terminals, etc.) in Brazil. They do not include stocks owned by Brazilian companies abroad, for example, in transit and port terminals in the United States, Europe, and Japan. According to the May 2018 release of the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (CitrusBR), global Brazilian orange juice inventories are projected at approximately 305 986 tonnes (66 brix) on 30 June 2018. Projections for 30 June 2018 are pegged between 55 943-154 732 tonnes. CitrusBR global inventories include orange juice in storage tanks at processing plants and port terminals in Brazil, as well as stocks abroad (vessels and port facilities worldwide).
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